This season Texas is far and away the better team. In some circles they are considered a better representative in the BCS title game than their Big 12 brethren, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Ohio State solidified its reputation as an overrated, over hyped program that can't win the big game. They had feasted on inferior competition in the Big Ten (1-5 in bowl games this year as a conference) but blew two opportunities to earn notable victories against USC and Penn State (the one Big Ten team that could be considered competitive). In fact, they were dominated by USC on the national stage in all aspects of the game.
So the task is monumental for my Buckeyes of Ohio State. For the record, I see this game as a 37-6 victory for the Longhorns of Texas. But I have been horrible at predicting anything recently. Secondly, the Buckeyes were in a similar position in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl against the Miami Hurricanes and came out victorious. The reverse occurred against Florida in 2007. Also, nobody saw Alabama's loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl this year (except my friend Chris who called it along with upsets in every other BCS bowl game). Speaking of Alabama, they also stunned the college football world when they won the national championship against Miami after the 1992 season. My point is, upsets happen. It could happen here despite my doubts.
IF it were to happen though, here is what would have to happen to make it happen:
1)Chris Wells needs to have a big game. This is three pronged.
First, the Bucks need to control the game. Texas and Heisman Trophy runner up Colt McCoy (by the way, how perfect is it that the Longhorn QB is named Colt McCoy and comes from a small town deep in the heart of Texas?) have an explosive offense. The more the ball is out of their hands, the better for OSU. Running Wells can control the clock.
Second, there is a debate out there that the Big 12's defenses are weak. The games were so high scoring that, while many looked at the offenses as explosive, others wondered out loud if the defenses were just bad. You won't hear ESPN say that, but dig further. Regardless, the front four of Texas IS really good. The Buckeyes' offensive line has had all kinds of trouble pass blocking good, fast defensive lines like that of Texas. So how do you combat this? Run. They have had an easier time run blocking than pass blocking, so they need to run it.
Finally, Wells is good. He can run with success. When he runs with success, it opens things up for freshman QB Terrelle Pryor to run as well. The double threat of Pryor and Wells could wreak havoc for the Longhorns if they can keep them guessing like the former Longhorn, Vince Young used to do on a routine basis with much success.
2)Terrelle Pryor needs to have his best game.
As I mentioned in the first point, the Buckeyes' offensive line is terrible when it comes to pass blocking. This is one of several reasons Tressel pulled senior QB Todd Boeckman for the true freshman Pryor. This is against the "Tressel Rule." He is loyal to his seniors to a fault. He'd prefer red shirt all of his freshmen and allow them to grow before he throws them in the battle. But it became glaringly apparent that Boeckman was not going to be able to succeed with so much pressure in his face. Pryor and his "escape-ability" and athleticism needed to get in there if they were to salvage any kind of season after the humiliating loss to USC. Pryor delivered. He made some outstanding plays. He also made some freshmen mistakes, but these will reap benefits next year as he learns. If Pryor was able to take this past month to work on his faults and tweek some things and learn some things, he could have a coming out party in the Fiesta Bowl like Troy Smith did against Michigan and then Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl of 2006. If Pryor can get out of the pocket and make smart decisions like throwing it away, hitting his 2nd or 3rd options or running when it is there, the Buckeyes will score more than the 6 I predicted.
3)Somehow, some way, the defense MUST show up. The defensive line played better later in the year but we don't know if that is a function of improvement or weak competition. I still feel the linebackers are extremely overrated. Texas' offense is AWESOME. If the Buckeyes are able to pull off an upset, the defense HAS to somehow play out of its mind. If they give McCoy enough time to throw and they are unable to stuff the run consistently, Texas could drop 60 on them. It could be ugly.
4)The coaching staff can't play the same old schemes. It was quoted all over ESPN and local radio. USC players all said the Bucks played exactly how the film showed. There was nothing surprising, nothing new. There were no wrinkles. It is difficult enough to beat a team as talented and successful as Texas. If they are going to go into Arizona thinking they can play another predictable game plan, they are dead wrong. You can't show you hand hand and think you are going to win the pot.
5) They are going to have to want it more. The Bucks need to play with passion. They need to come out and hit hard. They need to bully Texas around. The Bucks still don't have much speed. The Big Ten as a whole has shown this bowl season that they are lacking in speed away from the skill positions. But the Big Ten never has been known for speed. The Big Ten is known for toughness and size. So they need to use that to their advantage. They need to beat up and beat down the Longhorns in the trenches and everywhere else. Make the hits hurt. Push them around. Don't be afraid to mix it up a little. Like I wrote before, pound Wells down their throat repeatedly. Be mean. I'm tired of getting beat. They should be too. Take it out on Texas!
6) Don't lose the obvious stuff. Field position, turnovers and special teams. As always with any team that isn't the runaway favorite, they need to win the battle of field position and turnovers. Mistakes need to be limited because there is no margin for error and field position slants the field in their favor. Special teams are always the "X" factor. If they can block a kick (field goal or punt) or run one back, things can quickly tilt in their favor as well. This is pretty much a given for any underdog anytime.
Six things that MUST, absolutely MUST happen if there is any, slight chance for Ohio State to pull out a much needed victory. It would be a victory that could begin the journey back into respectability.
Wait, no. The haters will come up with some excuse about how they were lucky and didn't deserve the win and are still a joke. That we can count on.
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